Orlando Pirates sat top of the table on 28 points from 12 games, Sundowns lurk just two points behind with a game in hand, and both share an identical +13 goal difference. Chiefs and Sekhukhune remain within striking distance. The table alone suggests a title race, but as anyone who's watched this league knows, tables can deceive. What matters is what's happening beyond this: the patterns, the performances, the decisions being made in recruitment and on training pitches.

This isn't a prediction blog. It's an attempt to understand what "closing the gap" actually means in the context of South African football, and to measure how close Pirates and Chiefs have really come to matching a club that's set the standard for nearly a decade.

What the gap really is

Two seasons ago, halfway through yet another Sundowns procession, there was a sense that something underneath the surface was starting to move. Pirates and Chiefs were miles away on points, but their recruitment felt more intentional, their best games against Sundowns were proper contests rather than coronations, and the Soweto clubs at least looked like they were finally asking the right questions.

The end of 2023/24 shut down the optimism: Sundowns finished on 73 points and won the league by 23; Pirates stopped at 50 and Chiefs were nowhere near that pace. The "gap" felt less like a closing door and more like a locked gate. Fast‑forward to 2025/26 and the mood is clearly different — Pirates leading with the best defensive record in the division, Sundowns still arguably the best team but no longer untouchable, Chiefs back in the top‑four picture with a more coherent squad and bolder game idea.

Over the last few years, my idea has settled into a three‑layer way of answering that:

  1. Team style — what the team tries to do, with and without the ball.
  2. Team performance — what that style actually delivers once you control for wage spend, fixture difficulty and game state.
  3. Player performance and recruitment — whether the squad on the pitch looks like the logical end‑point of a clear brief, or a compromise between different eras and coaches.

Those layers only start to mean anything when benchmarked vs:

By that standard, one thing is still obvious: Sundowns remain the reference club. To talk about any "gap", you still have to start in Chloorkop.

Sundowns, the reference

What strikes me about Sundowns is the consistent intentionality. Nothing is left to chance. They've built an environment where almost every detail — from how they build out from the back to how they structure rest defence — serves a clear vision of how football should be played.

They predominantly use a 4-2-3-1, with occasional tweaks into 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1. The foundation is sustained possession: they average over 60% of the ball, regularly climb into the 70-80% range, and complete close to 90% of their passes. These aren't just impressive numbers for the PSL — they'd hold up comfortably against strong CAF opposition.

Build-up starts short whenever possible. Ronwen Williams' technical quality and composure allow them to form a back three without dropping an extra midfielder, which means their double pivot can push higher earlier and create numerical advantages between the lines. From there, they progress primarily through central corridors and half-spaces rather than wide areas. Their shots show a clear bias toward high xG zones and especially the right half-space.

They spend entire halves camped in opposition territory, probing for the moment a centre-back steps too far, a defensive midfielder turns his head, or a fullback has to choose between tracking a runner or holding position. When that moment comes, they exploit it ruthlessly. The numbers back it up: roughly 1.86 xG per game, 1.86 goals scored, only 0.6 conceded, with an average shot profile clustered close to goal.

Without the ball, the same principles apply. They press high (one of the lowest PPDA figures in the league) with most recoveries happening in the opposition half or within seconds of losing possession. Behind that, their rest defence typically forms a narrow three or four-man block protecting central lanes, happy to force opponents wide and long rather than through the middle.

The vulnerability is equally obvious though. The same central corridors they dominate are where you can hurt them. Opposition xG shows a disproportionate share of Sundowns' conceded chances coming from the central zones, usually from a line-breaking pass or a ball bouncing off a dropping forward into the space behind an advanced fullback or outside a stepped-up centre-back.

The conclusion on them is: the challenge isn't to play better football than Sundowns. It's to build a culture capable of sustaining that level from August to May.

Pirates: Challengers, finally?

If Sundowns are the benchmark for control, Orlando Pirates feel like the team that's come closest to matching it — a possession-oriented side with enough structure to hurt you, but with clear limitations that emerge against the very best.

The table flatters them: 28 points from 12, only five conceded, +13 goal difference. They're winning games. But the performances, especially against Sundowns, tell you they're still a work in progress — improving rapidly.

Across the season, Pirates' best attacking sequences still come from the left and through the central lane. Their highest xG per box entry is concentrated in the left half‑space and central lanes. The build‑up matches that too: patient circulation from goal kicks, a willingness to carry rather than launch, and a clear bias toward using the left‑back (Deon Hotto) and left winger (Tshepang Moremi) as the first accelerators once they cross halfway. When games tilt their way, the pattern is familiar — regain in the middle third, bounce into an interior, then a sharp carry or combination down the left before a cut‑back into central finishing areas.

When opponents sit deeper or press more aggressively, data shows they create a significant portion of their xG from outside the box. Their shots per final-third pass sit on the lower side, and box entries from carries and crosses are around league average. They're often tidy in possession until the final 25 meters, then either resort to speculative long-range efforts or keep trying to access the same left-sided channels instead of finding alternative routes.

The recent 1-1 draw against Sundowns captured this perfectly. Pirates defended well and controlled transitions better than in previous seasons, but they never quite turned possession into sustained pressure. Their non-penalty shot map is sparse and central: a few efforts from the edge of the area, one clearer chance just inside the box, almost nothing from varied angles or depths.

The match also exposed the ceiling of their current setup. Defensively, they're solid: compact backline, screening midfielder, decent recovery speeds across all thirds. But Sundowns still found ways to threaten the best zones, their shots clustered centrally around the penalty spot, exactly where Pirates have struggled to fully lock down.

Put it together, and you see a team that's far more coherent than it was two or three years ago, but still a step short of imposing itself on the very best. The next evolution isn't about reinventing themselves — it's about adding variety when the primary patterns are blocked, and tightening central defending so their improved control isn't undone by the same high-value zones they're trying to dominate at the other end.

Chiefs: Cooking?

One of the most interesting teams so far is Chiefs. Kaizer Chiefs' season makes most sense when you examine matches like their 1-0 away win at Durban City — a perfect microcosm of where this project currently stands.

For 80 minutes, they looked exactly as you'd expect: comfortable on the ball, calm in defensive transition, but frustratingly toothless in the final third. They camped in Durban's half, strung passes together beautifully, and finished with nearly 70% possession. Yet they created barely half a goal's worth of chances.

Watching it back, the issue isn't really reaching the final third — it's what happens when they get there. Chiefs managed only a handful of shots, most from outside the box or angles that never truly tested the goalkeeper. The late winner came from a fairly unremarkable situation, a rare moment where they combined wide and arrived inside the area through a wide cross, which only highlighted how ineffective they'd been for the previous 80 minutes.

Against the broader sample, Durban away doesn't look like an outlier. It looks like a condensed version of the current project. Chiefs can keep the ball, move opponents around, and protect their own box well enough to edge tight games. They can press high in bursts, drop and control the middle third when needed, and they rarely panic even when matches stay close deep into the second half.

What they lack is a reliable mechanism for converting that control into repeated high-quality chances, especially when the primary plan — central combinations and carries — is neutralized by compact defending. Chiefs rank 12th in the league for non-penalty xG per shot at 0.09, but first in box touches with 20.3 per match. They're getting into dangerous areas more than anyone else in the league, but they're doing the least with those opportunities.

The encouraging part? The problems are specific and solvable. Chiefs don't need a new footballing identity — they're continuing with the good work done by the previous coach Nasreddine Nabi. Sharpen the tools they already have. The foundations are clearly there. The structure is sound. The recruitment is finally generating value. Now it's about adding the final layer: the cutting edge that turns possession into goals, and defensive organization into clean sheets against the league's best.

Finally

The gap to Sundowns exists in three dimensions: how clearly you define your playing style, how consistently that style survives pressure, and how ruthlessly your recruitment reinforces both.

Sundowns remain the reference because every part of the organization points in the same direction. They're a possession-dominant, high-pressing side. They recruit specifically for that reality and accept the risks that come with it. There's complete alignment between philosophy, execution, and squad building.

Pirates have evolved from aspiration to method. They now present as a recognizable team with a possession game, a backline capable of defending higher up the pitch, and a clearer understanding of where their attacking ceiling sits.

Chiefs are earlier in the journey, but the direction is finally coherent. They're building a methodical, carry-heavy, front-foot team that wants to dominate possession, supported by recruitment that's refreshing the spine rather than scattering resources across mismatched profiles from different eras.

When those answers trend positively for three consecutive seasons, the gap will have genuinely narrowed — whether or not the next title race ends with a different ribbon on the trophy. The signs suggest we're watching the early stages of that shift. For the first time in years, it doesn't feel like wishful thinking.